December 11, 2019

Leadership marveled at the increase in employee numbers at the holiday parties held by both my W-2 employers in 2019. At my day job, the company has gained about 20 new employees. The nonprofit has grown by at least that number of full-time employees since I joined as an intern in 2002.

At the latter’s holiday party on Monday, I mentioned the deja vu of the topic, and said it must be indicative of trouble ahead.

Well, last night I read Wells Fargo’s 2020 Outlook and today read and listened in on Fidelity’s equivalent webcast, and here’s what I found:

In case you can’t read the image, the key line reads:

Several leading indicators suggest the labor market is nearing peak levels, including consumers’ extremely favorable assessment of the job market, which tends to be most elevated just prior to recession.

So, essentially, as soon as people get comfortable, you can expect shit to go south.